WASHINGTON -- U.S. gasoline demand this summer likely will top last year's level by 2%, pushing gasoline prices higher than previously expected, a senior government energy analyst said.

Concerns about gasoline supply spurred a rally Friday in May gasoline futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange to an exchange record of $1.7360 a gallon, before settling at $1.7310 a gallon, up 6.79 cents.
The price of the May crude-oil contract hit an exchange record of $57.70 a barrel, before settling at $57.27 a barrel, up $1.87.
Growth in summer demand is expected to run higher than historical levels even as pump prices continue to set records, said John Cook, head of the petroleum division of the Energy Information Administration, the Department of Energy's statistics arm.Meanwhile, inventories are falling and crude-oil prices have risen.
Average prices probably won't hit $3 a gallon, but that level could be breached in states like California, Mr. Cook said.
"Since our last forecast, the gasoline market has started to tighten up at a little faster pace than we had anticipated and crude prices have risen sharply," Mr. Cook said. "We have had three straight weeks of big
gasoline inventory draws."
The EIA will update its forecast for peak summer gasoline prices in a report Thursday. Last month, the EIA predicted pump prices will peak at a national average of $2.15. Last year, nationwide pump prices peaked at $2.06. Since then, crude-oil prices have risen sharply. Oil futures on Nymex have risen 65% in the past year and 9% in the past month. Gasoline futures have risen 56% in the past three months alone.
But the pain at the pump isn't expected to lead most Americans to cancel their summer driving trips, says Justin McNaull of AAA, a federation of affiliated automobile clubs in the U.S. The organization expects a record number of Americans to take to the roads this summer once the unofficial vacation season gets under way during the Memorial Day weekend at the end of May.
Though some auto makers are reporting a downturn in sales of sport-utility vehicles, there is little proof that Americans are switching to sedans or compact cars.
In other commodity markets:
COCOA: Prices at the New York Board of Trade fell, reversing earlier gains as a rallying dollar sent speculators selling previously bought positions. The May cocoa contract had risen early on dollar weakness and worries over potential violence in the Ivory Coast, a top producer. As the dollar strengthened, speculators sold. The May contract fell $42 to $1,571 a metric ton.
SILVER: Futures prices at the Nymex fell, also pressured by the dollar's strength and worries that inflation might take a toehold. The May silver contract dropped 18 cents to $7 an ounce.